Malaria Forecast
August 18th, 2010 | Posted by MarisaImagine if we could predict malaria outbreaks just like we predict the weather. Well, we just might be able to!
The Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) has developed a model that predicts malaria outbreaks with 86 to 100% accuracy. The model uses weather predictions, information about mosquito reproductive patterns, and geographical data to predict the probability of an outbreak. Over the past nine years, the model has been tested and proven accurate in several countries including Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
Dr. Andrew Githeko, the malaria expert in charge of the project, says, “Rainfall and temperatures can be used to explain up to 80% of statistical variation in malaria incidences. This is because the temperature variations are extremely important in breeding of mosquitoes.”
So what does the current malaria forecast look like? According to the technology, an outbreak is unlikely to occur this season because the current temperature in most areas is not high enough for a mass breeding of mosquitoes.
In this case, we’ll take all the rain checks we can get if it means protecting the millions of people at risk of malaria.








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